Championship Finely Balanced As F1 Heads to America
The factors at play that could determine the destination of this year’s championship
The 2021 Formula One world championship is in its final stretches and we still don’t know who will take the crown, the ultimate prize in motorsport.
Max Verstappen leads Lewis Hamilton by six points going into the triple header of the American Continents — USA, Mexico and Brazil.
Verstappen took the lead back during the last outing in Turkey, but Hamilton’s pace throughout that weekend must have Red Bull worried.
Hamilton took a 10-place grid penalty for a new Internal Combustion Engine (ICE). He started the race in 11th, having been quickest in qualifying. It is easy to suggest that Hamilton had a great chance at winning that race had he started from pole.
But Christian Horner, the Red Bull team principal, clarified that weekend that he believes this was not a tactical decision by Mercedes, but a forced one.
“I think it was probably from what we understand more of a forced choice rather than a selective choice,” said Horner to Sky Sports F1, via the sports rush.
“So obviously, they’ve had issues with some of their other teams as well.
“It doesn’t affect us and what we’re doing, but it shows how tight and tough it is to get to the end of the season on three engines, that neither of us has managed. So hopefully we can do it on four.”
This idea that Mercedes are now struggling with reliability is quite interesting and has added yet another layer to the tense dynamic of this title fight.
Mercedes have been quite bullet proof in recent years. Hamilton has only had one mechanical failure during a race since his engine blew up in Malaysia in 2016.
Meanwhile Red Bull have had their fair share of reliability issues over the last few years, but Horner was firm in his belief that Verstappen will make it to the end of the season with his remaining components.
However, despite that penalty in Turkey, Toto Wolff was far less bullish.
“(Hamilton’s new ICE) can last until the end of the season, but there could be a moment where we say: ‘Is it worth taking a fresh one, because the other one is still at risk?’” said the Mercedes team principal, via Yahoo.
“So, this is something that is going to be really a work in progress.”
This is quite the admission and surely gives Red Bull a slight advantage going into the final six races.
But Horner also expressed concerns over the performance of the Mercedes engine.
“It was particularly noticeable with Lewis that he had a significant advantage in top speed despite having a bigger wing. In direct comparison he was driving 10 to 15 km/h faster in some cases,” said Horner, via GPblog.
That came as a bit of a surprise to us that they made such a big step with the power unit.”
Red Bull have speculated as to how this gain has been made. They lodged a complaint to the FIA about a potential circumvention of the rules, as reported by Mark Hughes of The Race.
The FIA have reportedly not taken any action on this query from Red Bull.
There has also been speculation that Mercedes are running their engines at higher modes than at the start of the season, which is what has caused the sudden reliability concerns.
The rules were changed midway through the 2020 season so that teams must run in the same engine mode during qualifying as well as throughout the race. Teams were essentially banned from using their “party mode” during qualifying — a phrase coined by Mercedes.
It is possible that Mercedes have opted to run higher engine modes, which makes up their sudden gains in straight line speed. It also makes sense that by doing so they would run a higher risk of a DNF.
It is possible for Red Bull to respond in-kind, but they may not see the same value in risking a DNF either.
This balance will be a huge factor in determining the winner of this year’s championship.
As noted by Horner himself, Austin has been a stronghold of Mercedes in recent seasons and has been a venue that Hamilton has performed exceptionally at in the past.
However, Verstappen has earned two podiums in a row at the Circuit of the Americas and finished fourth in 2017 — a post-race penalty knocking him off the podium in quite dramatic fashion.
Following that, Mexico and Brazil have been great tracks for Red Bull in the past and they should still fancy their chances at both circuits.
It is truly too hard to call with six Grands Prix still to go. This coming triple header should be advantageous to Red Bull, after a series of Mercedes favoured tracks such as Sochi and Monza.
These factors of performance could be the difference between the two rivals. Risking a DNF for extra power could easily backfire, but if it works then it could be what makes them kings.
