Formula One and the Concept of “Luck”
Max Verstappen’s misfortune a reminder of how fickle luck can be in Formula One.
Max Verstappen held a 32-point lead in the championship going into Silverstone. The Dutchman then won the Sprint Qualifying session to increase that lead to 33 points. But, ever since then it’s been all downhill.
Two crashes with two Mercedes in two races. To make matters worse, the stewards deemed both of the Silver Arrows to be predominantly at fault for causing the collisions.
Now it is Lewis Hamilton who leads the title fight. A 41-point swing in two races through very little fault of his own, Verstappen has every reason to be down on his luck.
But, following a ninth place finish in the aftermath of the crash in Hungary, Christian Horner reassured his driver. “Luck will change,” he said.
It was only a few races before then that it was Fernando Alonso who claimed the same for his team.
“One race we will be so lucky, you know we have so much credit,” said Alonso, following the Stryian Grand Prix — a man who clearly believes in “Karma!”.
And it was Alpine who reaped the rewards of Mercedes’ chaotic wrench during the start of the Hungarian race.
Valtteri Bottas’ crucial mistake, that took out several front running cars, and then Hamilton’s failure to pit during the restart meant that Esteban Ocon was leading the race completely unexpectedly.
Alonso held off Hamilton for a dozen or so laps to help ensure Ocon maintained his impressive victory. Just like that, Alpine’s luck changed. Suddenly they found themselves fifth in the Constructors Standings, having been stuck behind in seventh and adrift.
Alonso, too, has been very reassuring to Verstappen during his championship bid. The Spaniard sympathised with his efforts in taking on Hamilton, a battle he knows all too well.
“When things get a bit hot or when the title fight is about to get exciting, this sport does turn out to be a very British environment,” said the two time champion.
“Almost all the teams are British, most of your journalists and the TV crews are British too. In this way, it can be explained that the preference clearly goes to the driver from your own country, that he can continue to win.
“I always felt: when I was racing against British drivers, it seemed like I was always ‘the bad guy.’ At least that’s how they wanted to portray me.
“When I saw the moment at Silverstone and also heard the questions Verstappen got afterwards from the British press, I could understand his position very well.”
This increased the pressure on Verstappen at a time when everything seemed to be going wrong and the 23-year old snapped after qualifying third in Hungary. Verstappen interrupted a question in the press conference, clearly annoyed.
“Can we just already stop about this? Because we had so many fucking questions about (Silverstone). It’s ridiculous, honestly. Honestly the whole Thursday, we’ve been answering this stupid shit all the time, so can we just stop about it, please?” asked Verstappen.
However, there are still 12 races to go and only eight points separating the two fierce competitors. Hamilton has both the points advantage and the experience that makes him the slight favourite to win his eighth championship.
But, the Briton knows more about how luck can play a factor in Formula One than perhaps any other driver.
In a sport where luck plays such a massive role, nobody in F1 history has ever been involved in a championship fight as consistently as he has been. It’s in these tight, tense battles where misfortune can seem to pronounced.
From 2007–2012, with an exception in 2009, he raced at the front for McLaren. And ever since joining Mercedes in 2013, he has raced for victories. It was only in 2013 that he wasn’t in championship contention for the German manufacturer.
Luck has swung massively throughout his career. The 2007 championship was his to lose with two races to go, but a strategy error left him in the gravel in China and a gearbox issue put him at the back of the field in Brazil. Kimi Raikkonen took the crown by one point.
Hamilton won the following championship in 2008 by one point. He overtook Timo Glock on the final corner of the final lap of the final race to beat out Felipe Massa to the title.
The seven time champion could’ve won the 2012 title but for an unreliable McLaren. The car was certainly quick enough to compete, but mechanical issues and incidents in Germany, Europe, Belgium, Singapore, Abu Dhabi and Spain (qualifying) limited his potential.
An engine failure while leading in Malaysia in 2016 didn’t quite lose him the championship to his teammate, but it certainly made Nico Rosberg’s task much easier in finishing the job.
On the other hand, Hamilton has been gifted plenty of wins in his 99 so far. The 2017 and 18 Ferrari challenges to Mercedes were won by a mix of great driving and also self-implosion from the Italian team.
Singapore 2017 and Hockenheim 2018 were huge turning points in their respective championship battles.
Sebastian Vettel crashed out from the lead in both races, while Hamilton took full advantage to go on and win both of those races.
And, arguably, Hamilton has had the luckier first half to 2021. The timing of the red flag in Imola meant that he was able to rally back from a lap down to secure a second place finish behind Verstappen.
His mistake could’ve cost him a points finish, but for the race being stopped right at the moment everything went wrong for the 36-year old.
The red flag once again helped in Silverstone following the incident with Verstappen. Mercedes claimed Hamilton wouldn’t have finished the race but for repairs made to the car during the red flag period.
Even in Hungary, the whole field was wiped out behind him and it was only a team error at the restart that put him at the back of the pack. It surely would have been a comfortable win if they had just pitted with everyone else — even if Hamilton rejoined in sixth or seventh.
A similar story can be said about Hamilton’s own mistake costing him a free win in Baku after Verstappen’s tyre exploded without any warning.
Verstappen should be able to take solace in the fact he only finds himself eight points behind despite such misfortune. But, he will still need to perform at his very best to beat Hamilton. Because once Hamilton takes a championship lead, there’s no going downhill from there.
