Is the Champions League Broken?
There was a time when Real Madrid being drawn from pot two in the Champions League group stages was a very big deal. In 2010 they were pulled out from the hat alongside the likes of Benfica and Panathinaikos instead of Bayern Munich and Barcelona.
This year’s draw saw the likes of Barcelona, Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund all in that second pot. However, this time there would be little fuss. Ever since the change in the seeding structure came into place in 2015, these big sides have been relegated to the second tier on a more consistent basis.
Previously, the top performing sides in Europe were all allocated into the group of top seeds regardless of their league performances. They were instead judged solely on their results in the five most recent European campaigns. Now, the winners of the top six leagues, alongside the Champions League and Europa League holders go into the first pot.
This is what made Real Madrid’s drop to the second pot ten years ago all the more devastating. This was a clear drop in status for the competition’s most successful side. They had failed to make the quarter finals six seasons in a row, always falling just short at the round of 16. They were no longer considered part of the high end elite.
Of course, Madrid flexed their financial muscles, brought in two time winning manager Jose Mourinho and their fortunes turned as they quickly reasserted themselves into the group of top seeds.
But how has this change to the draw impacted Europe’s biggest competition?
The perception of the Champions League in the few years since the change is that the group stages have become a procession on the way to an incredible series of knockout ties between the continent’s best teams.
It’s hard to argue with this perception when looking at the figures. The group stages have seen far fewer upsets. When comparing the five seasons of this updated seeding system to the five last ones of the old system, it’s clear that fewer teams from pots three and four are qualifying for the knockout rounds.
From 2010/11–2014/15, the five last years of the old system, 22 teams from pots 3 & 4 made it to the Last 16 stage. In the five years since the new changes, that number has dropped to 16, with a further drop of only four of those teams coming from pot four, as opposed to six in the previous system.
There is also a big problem with variety. The richest five leagues, i.e. England, Spain, Germany, Italy and France, have come to dominate the final stages of the competition.
The period of 10/11–14/15 saw a median average of eight unique nations being represented in the knockout rounds. Over this period, 14 unique nations had at least one representative during one of those five seasons.
These numbers drop from 15/16–19/20. The median average of unique representatives per year has fallen to seven. Meanwhile, there have been only 12 nations involved in the latter stages of the tournament.
The late stages of the competition is where everything is supposed to heat up. This is where we find out just who the very best teams are. Increasingly, Europe’s best teams have come from the same group of countries, who also happen to top the list of richest clubs in the world — a coincidence I’m sure.
The number of unique sides that have qualified for the quarter finals onwards has stayed steady during this change. It was 21 sides in the period of 10/11–14/15 and it even increased to 22 from 15/16 to 19/20. However, the number of nations those sides represented diminished from nine to seven.
More and more countries are getting squeezed out of the competition. Each passing year brings us closer to the closed shop that the big clubs have always wanted. The semi-final run from Ajax in 2018/19 has proven an outlier, as the Netherlands were the only nation outside of Europe’s Big Five to be represented in a semi final from the overall period of the last 10 seasons.
This means that while there have been some underdog stories, APOEL reaching a quarter final in 2012 really stands out, this has also been the limit of their over-achievement. The likes of Basel, Galalatasaray, Olympiacos or even Benfica and Porto have all been limited to quarter final appearances in the last decade.
By squeezing these nations out of the competition altogether, they simply can’t keep up with the money at the top of the game. For a lot of those sides, they would’ve relied on the vast sums of Champions League prize money. These runs to the quarters should have been something to build on, something to help diversify the game.
Instead, the big clubs flexed their political muscles to demand a new seeding system and a guarantee that the top four in their respective leagues went straight through to the group stages every year.
While we do get more glamour ties in the group stages, with the likes of PSG playing Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, or Barcelona being drawn with Juventus, there has also been an increase in the gap in points earned between second and third in the groups.
The mean average points earned by second placed teams per year ranged from 9.5–10.5 in the old seeding system. In the most recent five years, that range has increased to 9.875–11.625. Meanwhile, the mean average points earned by third placed teams has dropped from a range of 6.375–8 to 5.875–6.875.
The 2011/12 season in particular was as close as it ever got in the group stages. On average, it required 9.5 points to finish second, while third placed sides averaged 8 points. A very close set of groups that resulted in having the first ever side not qualify to the knockout rounds while having earned 12 points. Napoli truly are always the bridesmaids.
The one positive change that this new system has provided to the Champions League is that the knockout stages have become the most entertaining and thrilling series on television. There has been a strong increase in the average amount of goals per game.
The average range of goals per game in the knockout rounds per year has increased from 2.72–3.14 to 2.31–3.52. The fact that this is being worked out on a pretty small sample size of five seasons means the outliers that exist in both ranges impacts how it looks. The median average within these ranges is an increase from 2.89 to 3.28 goals per game.
This has been achieved while the median and mean average of “close” ties has stayed the same (a close tie being defined as one where it was decided between a difference of one goal or fewer). Of the 15 ties that take place in the knockout stages of the competition, on average seven of those fit the criteria of a close tie.
There have been years where there was more one-sided dominance but this is true for both periods, meaning there is little to read into as a form of predicting where these figures may go in the future.
So, the flaws have been examined, the positives are there but the system is beginning to look more and more lopsided towards the biggest leagues. What can UEFA do to turn back the tide?
They’ve shown that they will bow to the political pressure of a breakaway European Super League before, they need to figure out a compromise with the biggest leagues to try find a way for greater variety in any given Champions League campaign.
Perhaps this year’s makeshift World Cup-style knockout stages can provide a glimpse into a future format for the competition. The final rounds received positive feedback and led to some of the tournament’s most dramatic moments in recent years.
An increase in the amount of teams participating in the Champions League might be a pathway forward. Currently those pot one sides are reserved for league or European champions, but what if the reward for those honours was a bye into the knockout rounds? This would leave room to increase the amount of group stage qualifiers to 48. In this format, there would be 12 groups of four, instead of the eight that we currently have.
The top two sides of each group would qualify to a round of 32 which would take place over two legs, as would the round of 16. From the quarter finals onwards, there is room for the new format we witnessed in Lisbon this year.
In this scenario little room is needed to be made in the already congested calendar as the extra round of two legged matches is taken from the lack of two legs in the quarter and semi finals.
For those who are given the bye into the knockout rounds they also benefit from six fewer games in their season which means fresher legs in their squad over the course of a long season.
However, this does mean they miss out on three games worth of home match-day revenue, as well as possibly two more later in the competition. It will be up to UEFA to convince the big clubs that this tradeoff will be worth it.
The likes of Andrea Agnelli of Juventus has been pushing for a new format for the famous competition, so this suggests that one is due potentially even as soon as 2024. And with the consistency with which we see the same matchups almost every year, a change does feel sorely needed.
But do we trust UEFA and the big clubs to negotiate for something that will be better for the game as a whole? If they had it their way, Real Madrid would never be relegated to pot two ever again.
