The Merits of the Title Races Around Europe
Part 1, Episode 2: Spain and Italy.
Last week’s inaugural installment in this series looked at the title race in England — and briefly touched on France and Germany — but this week it is the turn of the two most unpredictable leagues in Europe right now.
In Spain and Italy there have been very obvious league winners in the immediate past. Real Madrid and Barcelona have shared the Liga title almost exclusively between themselves for nearly two decades.
Meanwhile, Juventus went on a near decade-long streak of winning Serie A all by themselves.
But, last season, both titles were won by outsiders. To call Inter Milan and Atletico Madrid outsiders, however, is telling in itself. These are still two of the biggest clubs in their respective domestic competitions.
Now, 12 games into this season’s campaign, and it looks like either title is up for grabs.
Let’s start with Spain, where the field is really well spread out.
Top of La Liga going into the final international break of 2021 is… Real Sociedad!
La Real have played a game more than their nearest competitors, but they lead with 28 points from 13 games.
It is Real Madrid, Sevilla and Atletico Madrid immediately behind them in the table — three of last year’s top four — but Real Betis, Osasuna, Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao aren’t too far behind.
Most surprisingly of all, Barcelona find themselves ninth and under new management. Ronald Koeman was sacked following a 1–0 loss to Vallecano.
However, the numbers behind Barcelona aren’t as bad as a team who finds themselves in ninth might think.
Their xG/D per 90 is third best in the league at +0.63. It is defensively where the side is being let down. Their xGA of 12.4 has equated to conceding 15 actual goals. The Rayo Vallecano game was especially tough, a game they won in xG terms 2.8–1.0.
In fact, in terms of single-game xG, the only match they significantly over-performed in front of goal came in their most recent one against Celta Vigo, which they drew 3–3 from an xG score of 0.8–1.7.
This has been a side who have been under-performing their metrics but then decided to fire their coach anyway. This team was bound to go on a hot streak at some point under Koeman, but will Xavi Hernandez set up the team in the same way?
There are a lot of question marks around the former Barca midfielder. This is a risk that could blow up in their face spectacularly if it all goes wrong. But if he can remain on course, then the team should start picking up points more consistently.
However, it is not Real Madrid or Atletico who top the xG/D per 90 table. It is Athletic Bilbao and Sevilla.
In fact, the two Madrid sides are sixth and fifth respectively — Atletico with an xG/D of +0.46 per 90 and Carlo Ancelotti’s side with +0.32 xG/D per 90.
Real Sociedad rounds out the top six, in fourth, with the same xG/D per 90 as Atletico, having played one more game.
There is then a big drop off to Real Betis in seventh.
Real Madrid are profiting from a massive scoring hot streak from both Karim Benzema and Vinicius Jr. Both top the scoring charts in La Liga, with 10 and seven goals. However, Benzema has scored so many from an xG of only 5.4 and Vinicius from an xG of 3.8.
Los Blancos have also only conceded 13 goals from an xGA of 15.4, so defensively they are riding their luck a little. As a team, they have also scored 28 from an xG of only 19.2. And yet, from all of this, they remain in second place in the league table.
Atletico don’t have the same issues defensively. Diego Simeone’s side have actually conceded 13 from a 10.3xGA, but they too have been on the receiving end of a scoring hot streak. Los Rojiblancos have scored 21 from an xG of 15.3.
Barcelona find themselves disadvantaged points wise, which makes Xavi’s task even harder. But given the gap between first and ninth is only 11 points, with Barca having a game in hand, there are worse positions to be in with so many games yet to play.
For example, in Serie A, an 11 point gap from the leader is good enough for fifth place. Lazio’s optics will always look better when they sit in fifth, but their gap to Napoli is as big as Barcelona’s to Real Sociedad.
What’s most significant about this Serie A table is that there are two runaway teams in the league. Joining Napoli at the top is AC Milan.
These are two names who haven’t been associated with a ton of success lately.
Milan’s last league win came under Max Allegri in 2011 and Napoli are potentially club football’s biggest perennial underachievers. Not since Diego Maradona brought the team to glory in the 1980’s have they seen a team of champions.
Holders Inter Milan are the only side who have kept close, but they sit seven points behind in third.
Neither of the front runners have lost a league game this season, with a record of 10 wins and two draws.
But Napoli’s xG/D per 90 blows everyone out of the water. They easily out match everyone in the league, with +1.10xG/D per 90.
Meanwhile, Milan are “only” +0.60xG/D per 90, which is enough to put them fourth behind Inter Milan (+0.80) and Roma (+0.63).
It is also not the case that Napoli have one outlier result that has swayed this result so far in their favour. This has been the result of consistently great performances.
They are over-performing their xG and xGA but not massively so, not like the Madrid teams have been.
Worryingly, Juventus haven’t been massively under-performing their metrics like Barcelona have been. Allegri’s side sit seventh in the table and seventh in the xG/D per 90 table, too.
The 3–2 victories over Sampdoria and Spezia were close on paper, but these were the only two games in which they thoroughly dominated their opposition all season. Every other match has been a struggle.
The 14-point gap to the leaders will require a massive step up in performances and results. The Old Lady will essentially need to pace a 95-point season to be within a chance of catching Napoli or Milan — and that factors in both of those sides suffering a dip in form at some point in the campaign.
Inter don’t have as much work to do, and their performances have been solid even if results haven’t always swung their way. Their one loss this season came to Maurizio Sarri’s Napoli, which was a deserved result but still looks to be an isolated incident.
Given the loss of Romelu Lukaku and Achraf Hakimi to the side, Simone Inzaghi has done a very solid job since coming into the Nerazzurri.
The chase for the fourth Champions League spot will be tense, too. Juve aren’t certain of retaining their place in the premiere UEFA competition next season. Atalanta and Roma have both performed better so far this season.
Roma started the season well, but their performances against the bigger sides have left a lot to be desired. They failed to beat either Milan side, Napoli, Juventus or Lazio.
The average position of the opposition they’ve beaten is 12th. Fiorentina in ninth is the highest placed opponent they’ve won against from their opening 12 games. A draw with Napoli, however, is looking a better and better result as the weeks go by.
Finally, Atalanta haven’t quite performed to their recent standards but this is a squad suffering from several injuries to important players and still getting results while playing more than okay.
If they can get everyone back fit after the international break then there is reason enough to be optimistic that they can competitively challenge for the fourth Champions League spot.
The next update in this series will come after the New Year once everyone has played each other at least once. But, if trends can continue as they have done then these three leagues will all offer us extremely competitive and entertaining seasons ahead.
All stats courtesy of StatsBomb via Fbref.
