The Rivalries of the Future: An Insight Into A Project Big Picture World
On Sunday afternoon Brighton & Hove Albion drew 1–1 with their biggest rivals, Crystal Palace, thanks to a late equaliser from Alexis Mac Allister (90+1). The drama wasn’t done yet, though, as Lewis Dunk was later sent off (90+3) for a challenge on Palace captain Gary Cahill.
This was a dramatic end to a thrilling derby. Sky Sports’ traditional Super Sunday programme was off to a good start.
But for most people, this was merely a random Premier League game before the evening’s main event which pitted London rivals Tottenham Hotspur against West Ham United.
The thought of taking a match between Brighton and Crystal Palace as seriously as any of the league’s biggest derbies would sound ludicrous to most neutral observers. While both sets of supporters see this as their clubs’ biggest league game in any given season where they share the same division, for most this is just any old league game.
It has been dubbed the M23 Derby or El Gatwick-o, a play on Spain’s El Clasico, by those who look to put it down. Even Sky are in on the joke, and they paid £9.3 million to televise it.
The reality is that this might be the derby of the future.
This is thanks to the news that rocked the English game last weekend that Liverpool and Manchester United’s top executives, and their respective owners, were working on a manifesto to “save” the domestic game.
A bailout to the lower leagues to secure their futures, to ensure they can keep the lights on, amid the coronavirus pandemic and spiralling costs of the game, has been offered up so graciously.
The catch: it would effectively seal the “Big Six” at the top of the game and hand over all control to those clubs: Liverpool and Man United, as well as Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Tottenham.
Entitled Project Big Picture, the idea was dead in the ground within days. A meeting between all 20 Premier League sides last Wednesday ruled out any possibility of the league moving forward with the proposal.
Despite some genuinely good ideas, and potentially some other beneficial ones, the power grab by the big clubs was too much to let go of and thus it is back to the drawing board.
In the meantime, the EFL divisions of League One and Two were offered a £50 million bailout to make due until a decision was made. Those clubs rejected the proposal. It is understood that teams found the offer to be “disgraceful” and an attempt to divide the 72 clubs that make up the three lower tiers.
For now, the 20 Premier League clubs are in agreement to work together on how to fix the dire financial straits of English football. However, the intent of Big Picture can’t and won’t be forgotten. If the big clubs see a potential way to consolidate power then they will grab it at the first chance.
This latest attempt at consolidating power has brought us ever closer to the potential of a breakaway European Super League. The threat was tentative, but the fact it was brought up at all should be seen as scandalous and dangerous. Following through would mean the big clubs simply pulling out of the Premier League to form their own division using EFL clubs.
The Football Association had to publicly denounce this idea, saying they would not support it. But the ground work is there for a future breakaway. And there is nothing the FA will be able to do to deny those clubs entry to any future ESL.
As outlined in this piece by The Athletic that by moving the goalposts, the big clubs now have wiggle room to gain more power, just not as much as they initially wanted. This plan to over reach their desires means that by settling for a compromise they still get more than what they initially could’ve bargained before in a pre-Project Big Picture world.
“The hierarchy at Liverpool and Manchester United believe they have “changed the agenda” and the rescue packages heading towards League One and League Two have effectively been hastened by their action,” wrote the publication.
The advent of the new pay per view system will also help in any further discussions of re-shaping the English football pyramid. On Monday, West Brom and Burnley played out a predictable 0–0 draw, the first such result of this chaotic season. The only way to watch this match in the United Kingdom and Ireland was to pay £14.95 to Sky Box Office.
Most rational people will have balked at that price. Sky did not release the figures for how many people availed of this service, which is standard industry procedure with ppv figures, but the very public backlash against this initiative means that the feeling is it couldn’t have been enough to be worth the PR trouble.
However, as this service keeps going in October, and maybe the rest of the season, the data will almost certainly make it clear to the big clubs that their matches have greater demand than West Brom versus Burnley.
This will give those six clubs an even greater bargaining position in later discussions.
If they can’t gain their power in voting rights then they will almost certainly push for a greater share of money from the massive TV rights bill that has pumped money into the English game for the last 30 years.
But English football wasn’t always beholden to these six clubs. Never before has a group of clubs appealed for this much power, such that it would essentially freeze their places at the top of the league indefinitely. Not even the initial breakaway of the 22 Top Division clubs in 1992 was this extreme.
The change to voting rights would also have ensured they can bring through any changes they see fit without any chance for the other 14, or 12 in the proposed change to an 18 team league, clubs to fight against them. The league would become a true oligarchy.
Thinking back through the long history of the top division, there have always been cycles of differing teams competing at the top of the league. This begs the question that the big teams must surely feel very confident in answering. What compels people to watch the Premier League?
Are viewers interested in how Liverpool and Manchester United fare more than the rest because they’re the two biggest clubs or because they consistently compete at the top of the table? This is the key philosophical question that will now hang over the Premier League throughout this decade.
If the big six were to breakaway for a European Super League would there be any neutral fans left watching the Premier League or would everyone flock to the big clubs competing across the continent?
History tells us that people care about competition, not specific teams.
Nottingham Forest are in the Championship currently, and have been for over 20 years. They are a club who won two European Cups under Brian Clough in the late 70’s, as well as a First Division title. This was a club consistently competing at the top of the English game for a sustained period of time. But the Premier League is still the biggest in the world despite their absence.
Huddersfield Town won three First Division titles in a row in the 1920’s and, except for a handful of seasons rooted near the bottom of the table, have been out of the top division for the majority of the last 50 years. The Premier League world keeps spinning, barely noticing their struggles in the lower divisions.
These two clubs are just a couple out of numerous examples of previously successful teams being stuck away from the limelight. This is the dream that the English football pyramid’s system sells to its competitors. All it takes is a couple of good seasons put together to soar the ranks and into the upper echelons of the game.
Just ask Sheffield United. Only three years ago they were competing in England’s third tier and now in 2020 they are competing for places in European competition.
This works both ways too. All it takes is one disaster to sink a club for years. Sunderland spent a decade in the Premier League, but with two horrific campaigns in a row they now find themselves in League One. Porstmouth suffered a similar fate, ending up in League Two. Bolton Wanderers nearly vanished from existence.
Leeds United are only now back in the big time after 14 years out of the Premier League. They too were once one of the biggest sides in English football, competing for league titles and even European Cups. The Premier League became the financial behemoth it is today without their presence.
The big test for the survivability of English football will ultimately come down to brand loyalty.
Are viewers more interested in a couple of specific characters, the big six clubs, or do they care more about the overarching themes and stories of any given Premier League season?
The implications of Project Big Picture mean that these questions will soon be posed and the future of football will be staked on which group feels more confident in their ability to answer.
Are the compelling dramas between the likes of Liverpool and Man United, no matter how good or how bad those two teams ever get, or will we one day be brimming with excitement to see who wins: Crystal Palace or Brighton?
