What Next For Leicester City?
How to follow on from an incredibly successful campaign, in which over-achievement was an understatement, was a question Leicester City had to deal with four years ago under Claudio Ranieri. The Foxes answered emphatically with a historically poor response. From the most unlikely of champions to a mediocre 12th place finish.
So, now they must answer the question of how to follow up a disappointingly successful season. One in which over-achievement can only be described as underwhelming.
Brendan Rodgers’ side finished in fifth place, the first side to crack the big 6’s stranglehold on those same positions since that famous league win in 2016. But it didn’t really feel like that big of an accomplishment this time around. Leicester suffered the cruel fate of being too good in the first half of the season, setting expectations too high.
Once the regression to the mean, as well as an unlucky string of injuries, arrived their results fell off a cliff. Champions League qualification a certainty in December, soon an impossibility in July.
How do you come back from such a disappointment? Well, if pundits are to be believed: not very well. Not a single BBC commentator picked Leicester for a top 4 finish this season. In fact the only team outside the top 4 that was picked were Arsenal.
Have Leicester fallen so dramatically that they are now worse than 8th place Arsenal?
Well, let’s start by looking at their collapse. How did a side that was second on Christmas day, and with that in the title race conversation, fall to lowly fifth?
Firstly, injuries played their part. James Maddison (out for the last six league games), Ricardo Pereira (9), Caglar Soyuncu (3) and Ben Chilwell (5) all missed the crucial run in. Most importantly, they all missed the final deciding game against Manchester United.
Secondly, when Man United were struggling halfway through the campaign — sitting 14 points behind Leicester on January 31 and in fifth place themselves — they could afford to sanction the signing of Bruno Fernandes, and we all know what impact he’s had on the Red Devils since joining.
Meanwhile, Leicester were unable to strengthen in the winter having spent roughly £90m securing Youri Tielemans from Monaco, signing Ayoze Perez from Newcastle, Dennis Praet from Sampdoria and James Justin from Luton Town. While this was a very good window, the spending was also offset by the sale of £80m for Harry Maguire, to Man United of all clubs.
A net spend of only £10m really puts into context how successful a window that was for Leicester. Not many clubs sell one of their best players, to a would-be rival no less, and end up greater off because of it.
For proof, just ask Rodgers. In 2014, as Liverpool manager, the Northern Irishman lost his best player Luis Suarez to Barcelona. Despite getting so close to winning the league the year prior, Liverpool completely failed to replace the Uruguayan and slumped to a disappointing 6th.
The perception of Liverpool that season was that Rodgers was to blame, he tinkered with his side and failed to implement the new signings in a meaningful way, failing to adapt and evolve his title challenging team and thus the writing was on the wall for his sacking in October of 2015.
But this is not the same story at Leicester. Rodgers has not reached his ceiling with the team. It’s easy to forget he is still yet to reach his two year anniversary with the club. Last season was simply the beginning.
Leicester absolutely suffered from their own success too. According to Understat’s figures, Leicester’s expected points (xPts) up to Christmas day, the high point of their season, would have had them sitting in fifth had they not overachieved by so much.
Their numbers, as is often the case, would eventually fall off to be more in line with how they were expected, but their form from the winter schedule on would still have ranked them sixth, and an overall xPts of 60 to finish the whole season. Leicester finished with 62 actual points.
A year on from losing Maguire, Leicester have now also lost Chilwell to Chelsea. Another year of weakening themselves and strengthening a rival. This makes progress that bit tougher, in a world where cracking the top 6 is already incredibly difficult. It takes a string of smart transfer windows and a bit of luck to come close to the oligarchy at the top.
However, this window has been a tough one for the Foxes. So far their only signing has been Timothy Castagne (£21.6m) from Atalanta. Despite winning their opening game of the season 3–0, the warning signs are there that more reinforcement will be needed to sustain a better Champions League push this campaign. For starters, fielding an XI of only right footed players is not a good sign, as explained by Tom Worville of the Athletic here.
But looking at the overall age profile of their squad, it is very promising. Their most important players are still coming into their prime years together, mixed with league winning experience at the back and a steady spread of youth and experience off the bench.
With three weeks left in the window, the essential target must be finding an alternative to Jamie Vardy’s goals. His 23 last season was enough for the golden boot, but their next highest scorer, Perez, only managed eight.
The creative forces of Maddison (who was third in the league for shot creating actions), Tielemans (26th) and Barnes (45th) are the envy of their outsider rivals. Complementing those with more consistent goalscorers is essential in order to progress this season.
Fortunately, Pereira proved himself to be one of the best in his position within the entire league last season, his creativity comparing nicely to the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold, while remaining quite defensively sound.
Keeping him fit will also be important. While Castagne got a debut goal from right back, Pereria’s absence meant the Belgian was playing on the opposite side of where he usually played for his former club.
Altogether, the pieces are there for another swing at the big guns, and with the right factors going their way then there’s no reason why this side can’t compete for the top 4 once again. Write Rodgers off at your peril, perhaps Leicester have finally figured out the formula for consistent over-achievement.
