What to Expect From the French Open (Men’s Singles)
It’s been a long 18 weeks, a whole 126 days later than intended, but the French Open is finally ready to start. Initially set to begin on May 24. The tournament was quickly postponed among the chaos of the first wave of the current pandemic that plagues our everyday existence. It’s been quite the wait, but at last the tennis world is ready for the final slam of the year.
In the current era of dominance by the Big 3™ of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, the French Open has seen the least variety of all four major tournaments.
Despite the fact that many will argue the clay surface breeds the most entertaining and exhilarating tennis, it has been the least susceptible to an upset of the four Grand Slams ever since Nadal’s first victory in Paris in 2005.
While the French Open has certainly hosted it’s fair share of great matches over the last 15 years, ultimately it has all been an exercise in futility as Nadal annually ploughs through the field.
The Spaniard has suffered only two defeats ever at Roland Garros in 95 matches, a record totally unmatched. He has won the competition 12 times, which would rank him fifth in the Grand Slam count alone before adding in the seven others he’s won at the other tournaments.
All of that is to say, Nadal is always the favourite when the French Open rolls around. The first defeat came in 2009 to Robin Soderling, and Djokovic finally beat him in the quarter finals of the 2015 edition, albeit Nadal was far from at his best physically but still safely got through to the last eight.
However, the French Open isn’t usually in October. This might not seem like a big deal, but it might just be the biggest factor in someone else taking the crown come October 11.
In normal circumstances the May weather in Paris would suit Nadal’s style perfectly. He thrives in the warm weather, as it speeds up the courts and allows for his punishing style to wear opponents down.
Temperatures in Paris this week have fallen as low as nine degrees Celsius, which means the courts will be slower. The centre court, Philippe Chatrier, now has a roof and if the reports are indication it will need it during the course of the next two weeks. Nadal has struggled indoors throughout his career. Of his impressive 84 career title haul, only two have come from indoor tournaments.
The French Open will also have a new ball made by Wilson. These new balls have been described as “super heavy” and, as noted by Tumaini Carayol of the Guardian, the mixture of the lower temperatures and the new ball “should lead to a lower, less lively bounce, allowing opponents to counter his heavy topspin more easily.”
Nadal acknowledged this when speaking before the tournament starts on Sunday saying that the “situation is special.”
“Conditions here probably are the most difficult conditions for me ever in Roland Garros for so many different facts. Ball completely different. Ball is super slow, heavy. It’s very cold. Slow conditions.”
So, if Nadal is in a weaker position going into his most dominant arena then who are the challengers to his throne?
Well, firstly, Djokovic is always a threat. The world number one won the Rome Masters last week, beating Diego Schwartzman 7–5 6–3 in the final on Monday. It was Schwartzman who knocked out Nadal from the competition, but the Serbian handled the final with the sort of composure that has marked his career.
But it was his lack of composure that cost him two weeks ago in the US Open. His aggressive tossing of the ball following a break of serve struck the lines-woman, resulting in a fourth round default against Pablo Correño Busta. The most astonishing moment in a distinguished career. This will be his most high profile return to tennis since the incident, with all eyes turning to Roland Garros this Sunday.
Djokovic will be looking to become the first man to win each Slam multiple times. As dominant as all three have been, each has a weakness. For Nadal, a second Australian title has eluded him despite three lost finals since his first win in 2009. Federer and Djokovic could only win their French titles in the absence of Nadal, taking the 2009 & 2016 titles respectively.
A kind draw for Djokovic, mixed with the unusual conditions not being as big a factor for him, means that this is likely to be his best chance at ever winning a second title here. If ever there was a time to do it, it’s now.
The only other credible threat to the number one and two seeds will be Dominic Thiem. The Austrian is the third seed, and was recently crowned the US Open champion following a bizarre, yet entertaining four hour final against the German Alex Zverev.
Thiem has been dubbed the “prince of clay” and the natural successor to Nadal. The two clashed in each of the last three French Opens, with Nadal winning each time. However, Thiem has improved in the years since their first meeting, and even earned a set in last year’s final.
His US Open victory earlier this month was also his first Grand Slam title and the 27-year old will have the momentum on his side going into the competition. Lack of match practice will not be a concern for Thiem, who was playing in as many exhibition tournaments as he could throughout tennis’ pause period, as well as competing in the Western and Southern Open and the US Open.
Meanwhile, Nadal’s match practice since tennis came back is much more limited. He played three matches in Rome last week before losing in straight sets to Schwartzman.
However, the draw has been much less kinder to both Thiem and Nadal. Thiem opens his tournament with a match against 2014 US Open winner Marin Cilic. Awaiting him in the later rounds are potential matches against Casper Ruud, Felix Auger-Alliasime/Andy Murray/Stan Wawrinka and Gael Monfils/Schwartzman. He would be the favourite going into any of those matches, but none of those opponents would make light work for any of the top players.
Meanwhile, Nadal faces the possibility of playing the likes of Fabio Fognini and Zverev before a potential showdown with Thiem in the semi-finals. If both players can get through all that they then must face in what will no doubt be an intense and gruelling match.
If their marathon meetings at the Australian Open earlier this year, as well as their 2018 meeting at the US Open are any indicator, both will be well worn out before they even step foot on court for the final against a potentially well rested Djokovic.
For any other player to come out on top at the end of this would make for quite a shock. There is no Federer, he is out recovering from a knee operation and won’t return until 2021, and no one in the rest of the field has the resumé or the form to indicate that they will seriously threaten to go all the way.
The first round has offered up some great match-up potential though. As well as the aforementioned Thiem match, it also will see a clash between the three time Slam winners Murray and Wawrinka. A rematch of their highly entertaining 2017 semi final is a mouth watering first round draw and will hopefully be an indicator of things to come.
